My estimates on number of Metro transit passes were not too bad

Earlier this year, I estimated the number of transit passes sold by WMATA.  This week, WMATA published their estimate (see page 15).  Here they are:

	My Estimate	WMATA Report
Short Rail Pass	2,433 per week	1,800-2,100 per week
Rail Fast Pass	3,842 per week	3,000-3,600 per week
Bus Flash Pass	19,572 per week	35,000 per week

In my analysis, I explicitly overestimated the number sold by assuming that an increase in price would not decrease the number sold.    I don't know why I was so far off for the bus passes, but for the rail passes, I'm glad I was pretty close.